FEMSA (FMX): Q2’26 earnings preview

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FEMSA (FMX): Q2’26 earnings preview

Equity Research

16 July 2026 | 11:33AM BRT

We update our FEMSA model to preview its Q2 results and incorporate Thiago Bortoluci

+55(11)3372-0104 |

management’s latest public commentary and high-frequency data. We expect thiago.bortoluci@gs.com

Goldman Sachs do Brasil CTVM S.A.

FEMSA to report one of the strongest earnings prints across our Mexico Staples

Nicolas Sussmann

coverage, with OXXO Mexico growing same-store sales +8% y/y, materially ahead of +55(11)3371-9880 |

the ANTAD benchmark (+1% on the average for the quarter), with tailwinds from nicolas.sussmann@gs.comGoldman Sachs do Brasil CTVM S.A.

additional gathering occasions and a successful promotional campaign with Panini

during the FIFA World Cup. At a moment when Mexican consumers remain pressured

by soft macro indicators, eroding purchasing power from remittance flows from the

United States, and limited visibility on the USMCA trade agreement with the United

States and Canada, we think that print is something to highlight, albeit cautioning on

what we believe could be a soft H2. Positive (absolute and relative) momentum and

appealing shareholder returns keep us at Buy; that said, we think the positive

surprises of the quarter are fairly priced in. FEMSA is scheduled to report earnings on

July 28.

We are Buy rated on FEMSA shares, with new 12-month target prices of P$238 for

the local shares (up 4% from P$229 before) and US$138 for the ADRs (up +5% from

US$132 before), based on a sum-of-the parts valuation.

Key downside risks to our investment view include: 1. Inefficient capital structure; 2.

Holding complexity; 3. M&A and dilutive capital allocation; 4. Increased competition

from other retail segments in Mexico; 5. Macro deterioration in Mexico; 6. Execution