Americas Chemicals: Updating Estimates on Commodity Chemicals (DOW, EMN, LYB, HUN, OLN, WLK)

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Americas Chemicals: Updating Estimates on Commodity Chemicals (DOW, EMN, LYB, HUN, OLN, WLK)

Equity Research

16 July 2026 | 2:46AM EDT

Americas Chemicals: Updating Estimates on Commodity Chemicals

(DOW, EMN, LYB, HUN, OLN, WLK)

2Q26, in general, looks to be coming in around current consensus numbers with Duffy Fischer

+1(212)902-0099 |

more risk of beating estimates than missing. However, from 3Q26 onwards, numbers duffy.fischer@gs.com

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

will likely need to come down with risk to the downside on our lowered numbers (Our

Mike Harris

base case is SoH normalization in Q4 of this year). The forward earnings reductions +1(212)902-3667 | mike.harris@gs.com

reflect the recent margin declines and anticipation of further declines in key Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Ramsey Abdulrahimcommodity chains driven by the following market dynamics. 1) Middle East conflict +1(212)902-0091 |

impact - In general, the impact of the Middle East conflict was not as bullish for basic ramsey.abdulrahim@gs.comGoldman Sachs & Co. LLC

chemicals as originally believed. While significant Middle East supply for many Jordan Lee

chemical chains (e.g., PE, methanol, nitrogen, etc.) was/is curtailed and the lack of +1(212)357-6986 | jordan.lee@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Middle East feedstock forced some chemical producers into force majeure, the

benefit now seems like it will be less impactful and shorter-lived than originally

expected. Even before the June 14th ceasefire, many chemical chains were seeing

ample supply availability and prices starting to moderate largely driven by the

Chinese market. Those price declines picked up once the ceasefire was signed. Even

though the ceasefire could now be in jeopardy, our base case is that Middle East