Before the Bell Your Daily Best of Barclays Research

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Before the Bell Your Daily Best of Barclays Research

widened to near-record levels, exceeded over the past 15+ years only

during Covid. With hostilities between the US and Iran having resumed and the MoU effectively

no longer functioning as a ceasefire, oil has rallied. At the same time, USO upside skew has

sharply re-inverted and now sits near its most inverted level since the onset of the Iran conflict,

suggesting that near term risks remain skewed to the upside.

Global and Cross Asset Ideas

US Investment Grade: Hyperscalers: Too wide to ignore, too much supply to chase (07/16/2026).

As highlighted by Dominque Toublan, Andrew Keches and team, rapidly rising index

concentration is colliding with weaker deal subscriptions, larger new issue concessions and a

growing pipeline of AI-related supply. They now contribute more index DTS than the Big 6,

making their footprint in IG risk materially larger than their market weight suggests. To that

point, spreads are now quite wide for the rating, making the sector increasingly difficult to

ignore. But attractive unsecured valuations must be weighed against a widening menu of

higher-spread alternatives, and additional corporate supply could also keep curves under

pressure. With this in mind, the team downgrades the US HG Technology sector to Underweight

from Market Weight. Ticker saturation is becoming a larger issue, there is a growing opportunity

set of hyperscaler "adjacent" investment opportunities, and non-hyperscaler tech supply is also

rising. While the sector is reaching new wides, the issuers are already widely owned, suggesting

volatility is here to stay and they do not see the need to chase spreads in a meaningful way until

it becomes clear that funding needs are inflecting.