Global PCs: Shipment estimates -14% / -5% YoY in 2026E-27E; rising AI PC penetration

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Global PCs: Shipment estimates -14% / -5% YoY in 2026E-27E; rising AI PC penetration

Equity Research

16 July 2026 | 10:36AM HKT

Global PCs: Shipment estimates -14% / -5% YoY in 2026E-27E; rising AI

PC penetration

We further trim our global PC shipment estimates for 2026-27E, considering the Allen Chang

+852-2978-2930 |

near-term pressures of higher memory and CPU costs, and the flattening allen.k.chang@gs.com

Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

replacement cycle following the end of Win 10. We now expect global PC

Verena Jeng

shipments to be down -14%/ -5% YoY in 2026E/ 27E, followed by zero growth in +852-2978-1681 | verena.jeng@gs.com

2028E (vs. -10%/ +3%/ +3% YoY previously). Our updated PC shipment forecasts are Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

Katherine Murphy255m/ 243m/ 244m in 2026-28E, respectively. +1(212)902-1151 |

katherine.a.murphy@gs.com

As raw material costs increase, we expect AI PC to outperform given their lower Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Michael Ng, CFAsensitivity to price increases and the increasing need for AI edge computing. We +1(212)902-8618 | michael.ng@gs.com

model AI PC shipments to be 150m / 175m/ 199m in 2026-28E (+39% / +17%/ Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Schneider, Ph.D.+14% YoY), representing 59% / 72%/ 82% penetration (penetration ratio largely James | +1(212)357-2929

unchanged). Our updated PC TAM model is based on the latest GS forecasts for key jim.schneider@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

suppliers including Apple, Lenovo, HP, Dell, ASUS, Samsung, Microsoft, LG, Xiaomi

Gabriela Borges, CFA

and Gigabyte. Details within. +1(212)902-7839 |

gabriela.borges@gs.com

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Exhibit 1: Taiwan ODM Notebook: shipment MoM Daiki Takayama

increase in Jun on better seasonality +81(3)4587-9870 |

daiki.takayama@gs.com

Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd.