Partners Group Holding AG (PGHN.S): Thoughts Post 1H26 AUM - Unlikely To Fully Satisfy Bear Concerns

研报英文原文证据摘录

Partners Group Holding AG (PGHN.S): Thoughts Post 1H26 AUM - Unlikely To Fully Satisfy Bear Concerns

ing flagship private equity fundraise, we struggle to see traditional fundraising more than a

mid-SD billion figure. More significantly, it is also not inconceivable that performance pressures and prolonged gating could

trigger further negative noise around the Company, further impacting any recovery in demand. Indeed, it seems plausible that

the expected right-sizing of mature funds could trigger additional investor redemptions, which in our view could conceivably

present risks to client and distributor relationships. Indeed, following the update the reduction of client demand, particularly

in evergreens, means we now forecast total client demand to fall in FY27 vs FY26 levels - see Figure 2.

Running The Numbers — Following the 1H26 AUM update, we cut forecast AUM by 2-6%, driven primarily by evergreens,

including lower overall inflows, relatively smaller performance impacts (NAV effects), and higher redemptions. Combined with

slightly lower performance income, this results in 2-6% lower revenues and 2-9% lower EPS. Given the lower earnings

estimates, we trim our TP to CHF680 (from CHF700). Our revised estimates are c10% below consensus - see Figure 2-3.

Debate On Capital Management — Partners noted there is no change on expectation for its dividend and that it continues to

target a stable and progressive dividend. It also noted that it sees the current share price as an "attractive buying opportunity"

and that it expects buybacks to be a topic of discussion at the next board meeting. Despite this we continue to embed a

stable dividend and no buybacks, as in our view, since we continue to perceive the use of surplus cash for M&A as superior to