China: July Politburo meeting preview: Stronger easing rhetoric likely, but demand-side stimulus remains key

研报英文原文证据摘录

China: July Politburo meeting preview: Stronger easing rhetoric likely, but demand-side stimulus remains key

Economics Research

16 July 2026 | 6:51AM HKT

China: July Politburo meeting preview: Stronger easing rhetoric likely,

but demand-side stimulus remains key

Bottom line: Lisheng Wang

+852-3966-4004 |

lisheng.wang@gs.com

China’s top leadership is expected to convene the July Politburo meeting before Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

month-end to set the H2 macro policy stance. After weaker-than-expected Q2 GDP,

we expect policymakers to strengthen easing rhetoric and accelerate

implementation of already-planned demand-side measures, while maintaining their

strategic focus on high-tech sectors and key supply chains. However, resilient

exports and a still-achievable full-year growth target suggest limited urgency for

broad-based, sizable near-term stimulus. Several easing measures remain available

for H2, but demand-side support—especially fiscal easing—will be key to stabilizing

growth and market sentiment, in our view. We expect central and local governments

to accelerate bond issuance and proceeds spending in coming months, speed up

implementation of the new policy-based financial instrument, and leave the door

open for additional easing later this year if needed.

Main points:

1. China’s top leadership is expected to convene the July Politburo meeting before

month-end—usually in the final week of July based on past practice—to set the H2

macro policy stance (Exhibit 1). Given weaker-than-expected Q2 GDP and

still-elevated growth headwinds, we expect policymakers to adopt a more cautious

growth outlook, strengthen their easing rhetoric, and pledge faster implementation

of already-planned demand-side support, while maintaining their strategic focus on