What’s Top of Mind in Macro Research: Risks to softer US inflation, China policy efforts, equity/credit beta divergence

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What’s Top of Mind in Macro Research: Risks to softer US inflation, China policy efforts, equity/credit beta divergence

Economics Research

15 July 2026 | 4:54PM EDT

What’s Top of Mind in Macro Research: Risks to softer US inflation,

China policy efforts, equity/credit beta divergence

This week: Jenny Grimberg

+1(212)934-0199 |

jenny.grimberg@gs.com

n Softer US CPI… but Iran conflict poses risks Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Allison Nathan

n China GDP miss and policy efforts +1(212)357-7504 |

allison.nathan@gs.com

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLCn Credit vs. equity beta divergence

Ashley Rhodes

+1(212)934-4876 |

ashley.rhodes@gs.com

Transcript Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Softer US CPI… but Iran conflict poses risks

US core and headline CPI fell 0.02% and 0.42% in June, well below expectations,

reflecting broad-based declines across categories and a temporary reprieve in

energy costs, though we note that structural AI demand continues to put upward

pressure on software and accessories prices. While the softer-than-expected report

has eased market expectations of a July Fed rate hike—tempering the impact of

Governor Waller’s recent hawkish comments—we think a more serious re-escalation

of the US-Iran conflict that sees the recovery in Persian Gulf oil flows stall further

could revive the key upside risk to inflation and once again raise the odds of rate

hikes. Although an expansion of Middle East pipeline capacity should eventually

temper oil prices, we estimate that a near-term spike to $100/bbl would boost US

monthly core inflation by 3-4bp in coming months. But we believe the impact of yet

another supply shock on monetary policy could be more significant than that figure

implies, as it would add to the fear that further shocks may lie ahead and could

unanchor inflation expectations.