2Q26 earnings preview: Commodity tailwinds driving 2Q estimate upside

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2Q26 earnings preview: Commodity tailwinds driving 2Q estimate upside

’s opportunity set within Solid Waste by increasing FCF,

others expressed concerns regarding the associated equity dilution and increased

exposure to the more cyclical E&P waste market. Adding another dimension to the

debate, Bloomberg reported on July 3 that GFL is exploring a potential take-private

transaction following interest from investment firms. While we take no view on the

reported discussions, a take-private transaction could provide GFL with greater

flexibility to execute its acquisition-driven growth strategy outside the constraints of

the public markets, including reduced scrutiny around leverage, capital allocation,

and quarterly earnings variability. That said, GFL has outlined a long-term outlook

for low-teens organic EBITDA growth and high-teens organic free cash flow growth.

If management can execute against these targets while continuing to improve free

cash flow conversion, we believe there is a credible path for the shares to re-rate

within the public markets and narrow the perceived valuation gap without the need

for a take-private transaction. The Bloomberg report also noted that any successful

transaction would likely require founder and CEO Patrick Dovigi to sell a meaningful

equity stake. In addition, GFL’s substantial enterprise value and existing debt load

could limit the pool of potential buyers and increase financing complexity.

n CWST - Mid-Atlantic margin inflection: A key investor focus has been CWST’s

margin trajectory following M&A integration headwinds in the Mid-Atlantic region,

which pressured margins through much of 2025. On June 30, 2023, CWST completed

the acquisition of GFL’s Mid-Atlantic assets, including nine hauling operations, one

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