Global Markets Daily: Oil, the Fed, and AI

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Global Markets Daily: Oil, the Fed, and AI

Economics Research

15 July 2026 | 3:09PM EDT

n Three themes—oil price relief, the AI theme and US growth optimism, and a Vickie Chang

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hawkish Fed shift—have dominated the market narrative in recent weeks. These vickie.chang@gs.com

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

have created volatility but less clear direction in many macro assets.

n Using our cross-asset frameworks to look at how those themes have driven price

action shows that while the initial escalation phase of the war was driven clearly

by an oil shock and a hawkish inflation/policy shock, this more recent “relief”

period has been driven by a muddier mix of macro forces.

n The more recent period has been a tug-of-war between different themes like a

hawkish Fed shift vs. lower oil prices, and US AI optimism vs. terms-of-trade

relief for oil importers. That mix of offsetting forces has created more ambiguity

for US rates and the US Dollar. The market has not reverted to where it was

before the war because there has been a more persistent AI and US growth

upgrade, and a hawkish policy shock relative to that late February starting point.

n These three themes seem likely to remain the focus. We expect the purer macro

forces—oil and the Fed—to resolve in a modestly benign direction and for macro

assets to remain in narrower ranges as the conventional risks recede. But views

around the AI theme are likely to continue to shift and the risks there are in both

directions, so we expect that to be the primary source of volatility for equity

markets. The main macro risk is a further sustained rise in oil prices. Barring that,

we think the shift from macro volatility to micro volatility will continue.

Oil, the Fed, and AI