Volkswagen (vowg_p.DE): Thoughts on restructuring news and Everlence transaction; revising estimates ahead of 2Q26

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Volkswagen (vowg_p.DE): Thoughts on restructuring news and Everlence transaction; revising estimates ahead of 2Q26

Goldman Sachs Volkswagen (VOWG_p.DE)

Restructuring optimism overdone; execution remains the key hurdle

Recent restructuring headlines have driven a rebound in investor sentiment but, in

our view, the market is likely mispricing the execution risk inherent to Volkswagen’s

organizational complexity. Press coverage ahead of the CEO’s July 9, 2026 proposal to

the Supervisory Board outlined a materially more aggressive restructuring package than

that which was ultimately detailed in consecutive company releases on the proposal. The

initial press speculation talked to personnel reductions of up to 100k globally, and the

potential closure of four German plants, said to be Hanover, Emden, Zwickau, and Audi’s

Neckarsulm, with phased shutdowns between 2031 and 2034. Per the subsequent

company announcements, VW is now targeting a reduction of the model line-up of up to

50%, a cut in its offering complexity of up to 75%, and a resizing of its global production

capacity to approximately ~9m units per year (from ~12m pre-COVID). The press release

following the presentation of the proposal to the Supervisory Board also reconfirmed

Volkswagen Group’s commitment to a RoS margin of 8%-10% by 2030.

Exhibit 1: Volkswagen is currently executing four separate restructuring programmes simultaneously and aims to realise

a total of >€6bn pa of cost savings

VW restructuring overview

Programme Targets

• €1.5bn p.a. labor savings from the wage settlement by 2029

• Technical capacity reduction by ~730k units by 2028E

Future Volkswagen (Zukunft Volkswagen)

• >35k employee reduction by 2030

• Net cost effects >€4bn p.a by 2030

• Workforce reduction ~7,500 positions