Price and rent stabilization still on track but supply-side weakness persists, lower forecasts for 2H26

研报英文原文证据摘录

Price and rent stabilization still on track but supply-side weakness persists, lower forecasts for 2H26

Goldman Sachs China Property Monthly Tracker

1H26, which aligns with historical levels; 2) weak land market volumes in 1H26,

compounded by a low-teens percentage point decline in new launches compared to

end-25 levels in monitored cities, which further constrains developer internal

funding capacity; 3) upstream indicators suggest no immediate inflection point with

cement shipment ratios remaining ~10pp below prior year levels in recent months.

n GFA completions cut to -15% yoy (vs. prior -1%) for 2026E and implying -10% yoy

decline in 2H26E, underpinned by 1) 34% run-rate achieved in 1H26, consistent with

historical trends; 2) plateauing upstream indicators with glass prices showing

narrower sequential declines through MTD-July, and inventories flattened at

elevated levels by end-June. That said, we see potential for narrower declines as our

GSPC glass-implied completions in May-June returned to 2025 monthly averages,

suggesting potential in upcoming months to narrow the gap vs. our 2H forecast.

Corresponding with less constructive construction activities, we also lower property

FAI down to -15% yoy (vs. prior -12%) for 2026E and implying -11% yoy decline in

2H26E.

What we watch out for: Signs of property price stabilization/inflection in core T1 cities

(i.e. Shanghai and Shenzhen) and whether other key cities will follow suit; easing of

secondary supply pressure and improvement of rental yields in high-tier cities; policy

stimulus such as full relaxation of HPR in T1 cities; whether urban renewal

implementations accelerate on the back of intensified funding/execution supports.

Exhibit 1: Summary of our 2026E-27E forecasts: new vs. old