Tongcheng Travel Holdings (0780.HK): 2Q Earnings Likely to Miss Slightly but Full-Year NP Intact

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Tongcheng Travel Holdings (0780.HK): 2Q Earnings Likely to Miss Slightly but Full-Year NP Intact

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15 Jul 2026 13:49:17 ET │ 13 pages

Tongcheng Travel Holdings (0780.HK)

2Q Earnings Likely to Miss Slightly but Full-Year NP Intact

CITI'S TAKE

Tongcheng is likely to report 2Q26E results ~end-Aug, and we expect revs

largely in line but adj. earnings to slightly miss on one-off costs related to

labour optimization. As expected, with soft travel demand amid oil price Buy

surge, long-haul travel demand likely has been impacted, dragging airline Price (15 Jul 26 16:10) HK$12.17

and related hotel demand, and lower travel demand could also drag ads

performance somewhat under other revs segment as well. Tongcheng Target price HK$22.00↓

planned to optimize its OPEx this year, but the optimization process has from HK$25.00

been executed faster than expected, implying slightly lower earnings for Expected share price return 80.8%one-off related costs in 2Q26E but higher in 2H26E with full-year earnings

estimates likely largely intact. We fine-tune 2026/27/28E estimates (<1%) Expected dividend yield 0.0%

and lower TP to HK$22 from HK$25 with target PE lowered to 12x from 14x Expected total return 80.8%

given recent acquisition activities, which raised investors’ concerns about Market Cap HK$28,652Mcorporate governance. Nonetheless, with an undemanding valuation and

still decent bottom-line growth, we maintain Buy. US$3,653M

2Q26E results preview — We project total revs to grow by 5.8% yoy to Rmb4,941mn,

vs. consensus of Rmb4,970mn, driven by +7.8/-2.9/+35/-7% yoy on

accommodation/transportation/others/tourism respectively. GPM is projected at Price Performance

66% from 70% in 1Q26 due to seasonality, while adj. OPM is estimated to reach 21% (RIC: 0780.HK, BB: 780 HK)

vs.