Senegal Emerging Markets Strategy: Views on Senegal credit and recovery values

研报英文原文证据摘录

Senegal Emerging Markets Strategy: Views on Senegal credit and recovery values

Senegal Emerging Markets Strategy

23 June 2026 Citi Research

Overview and the political state of play

We view an external debt renegotiation as a base case under an IMF program. As our

economist highlights, the timing of the potential debt renegotiation will largely

depend on how domestic politics play out. The political debate in Senegal over the

last weeks seems to have been dominated by the Constitutional reforms proposed

by PASTEF that were reducing the President’s power. The Constitutional court struck

down the proposals as unconstitutional and Faye will thus be allowed to remain the

head of his political movement (AP News July 10th). Under the current constitution

the President cannot call snap elections before the end of the year, which means that

elections are unlikely before Q1-2027.

In our view the dismissal of Ousmane Sonko as PM and some of the steps taken by

the new cabinet headed by Ahmadou Al Aminou Lo show some signs that Senegal

might be preparing for an IMF program. Some of the notable steps we have seen over

the last month include the unification of the Debt Management Office and the

publication of the 2027-2029 medium-term fiscal framework which suggests the

authorities are converging with the IMF with regards to the macro framework.

The IMF teams visited Dakar last month, with another meetings possibly following

in the Senegalese authorities’ visit to DC (Africa Intelligence, 13 July). That said,

there important pending items remaining before the IMF can consider a program,

particularly a new audit of public sector arrears. The 2026 revised budget will also

be an important step in our view as it will give an indication of how the new political