Latin America Economics & Strategy Daily: Brazil Election Polls, Chile 2Q Public Finance Report, Argentina Inflation

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Latin America Economics & Strategy Daily: Brazil Election Polls, Chile 2Q Public Finance Report, Argentina Inflation

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15 Jul 2026 08:57:06 ET │ 16 pages

Latin America Economics & Strategy

Daily

Brazil Election Polls, Chile 2Q Public Finance Report, Argentina

Inflation Ernesto Revilla AC

+1-212-816-2621

ernesto.revilla@citi.com

CITI'S TAKE

Luis E Costa, CFA AC

Today we discuss developments in Brazil, Chile and Argentina. +44-20-7986-9757

luis.costa@citi.com

Regional Macro — Strikes in the Middle East continued, driving oil prices higher.

Stocks are also edging higher, primarily driven by tech stocks, as early season results Esteban Tamayo AC

boosted sentient over the AI trade (Bloomberg, July 15th). esteban.tamayo@citi.com

LatAm Strategy Trades — We remain long BRL against EUR and AUD as the current Leonardo Porto AC

macroeconomic backdrop still suggests resilience for high real-yielding EM (link). leonardo.porto@citi.com

We are holding on to our vol adjusted (structurally long USD) long MXN, BRL and AC Paulo LopesTRY vs CAD, CHF and THB, to capture high yielders carry (link).

paulo.lopes@citi.com

Brazil — Genial/Quaest poll shows President Lula widening his lead over Senator AC Thais OrtegaFlavio Bolsonaro amid improving approval rates. Congress approves bill damaging

further fiscal accounts despite MoF resistance. thais.ortega@citi.com

Felipe Juncal ACChile — The 2Q Public Finance Report projects that the government will miss its own

structural deficit targets from 2027 onward and that gross public debt will exceed felipe.juncal@citi.com

45% of GDP by 2029, underscoring the growing challenge of restoring fiscal AC Donato Guarino

buffers. The Senate is set to vote on President Kast’s flagship tax and investment