ASML Holding (ASML.AS): 2Q26 First Take: Strong orders underpin robust EUV/DUV capacity outlook

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ASML Holding (ASML.AS): 2Q26 First Take: Strong orders underpin robust EUV/DUV capacity outlook

Goldman Sachs ASML Holding (ASML.AS)

net sales despite higher overall company revenue guidance, implying Chinese demand is

broadly tracking global market growth. The company noted that incremental demand

within China continues to be driven primarily by domestic Logic customers, while outside

China, stronger demand for advanced Immersion systems reflects both increasing

lithography intensity at leading-edge nodes and rising process control requirements. In

addition, ASML highlighted continued momentum across its Installed Base business, with

software-led productivity upgrades and a growing EUV service installed base expected

to drive more than 30% growth this year, providing a further tailwind to margins.

Exhibit 1: ASML 2Q26 Variance

Current Quarter

GS Estimate Actual Actual vs Cons Cons.

EUR (mn) 2Q 2Q V% 2Q

Revenues 8,828 9,327 +6% 8,828

Sequential Change 0.7% 6.4% -- 0.7%

Year-over-year Change 14.8% 21.3% -- 14.8%

Gross Profit 4,564 5,035 +10% 4,582

Percent of revenues 51.7% 54.0% -- 51.9%

Selling, General & Administrative 300 303 -1% 306

Percent of revenues 3.4% 3.2% -- 3.5%

Research & Development 1,209 1,277 +6% 1,207

Percent of revenues 13.7% 13.7% -- 13.7%

Operating income 3,054 3,456 +13% 3,056

Percent of revenues 34.6% 37.1% -- 34.6%

Net income 2,540 2,918 +11% 2,625

Percent of revenues 28.8% 31.3% -- 29.7%

EPS - recurring € 6.60 € 7.58 +11% € 6.83

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Visible Alpha Consensus Data

Analysis

We expect an initial positive reaction in the shares, in light of a beat on all key KPIs in the

quarter, guide for next quarter above expectations, upgrade to its 2026 revenue guide