Screening for Resilience at $3.50/MMBtu HH Mid-Cycle; Highlight EQI, AR Relative to CRK on Cost of Supply

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Screening for Resilience at $3.50/MMBtu HH Mid-Cycle; Highlight EQI, AR Relative to CRK on Cost of Supply

Equity Research

14 July 2026 | 11:48PM EDT

AMERICAS ENERGY: OIL & GAS - E&P

Screening for Resilience at $3.50/MMBtu HH Mid-Cycle; Highlight EQT,

AR Relative to CRK on Cost of Supply

Given a challenging North American natural gas macro environment, we update Neil Mehta

+1(212)357-4042 | neil.mehta@gs.com

estimates for our natural gas E&P coverage ahead of 2Q26 earnings and adjusted our Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

commodity price deck to incorporate $3.50/$3.50 per MMBtu Henry Hub pricing in Jack Cavanagh

2027/2028. Year-to-date, our Gas E&P coverage (-10%) has underperformed our +1(212)902-7206jack.cavanagh@gs.com|

Oily E&P coverage (+28%) as the outlook for Permian associated gas growth for Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Jerry SpeicherFY2026 has remained top of mind for the market and as North American natural gas +1(801)744-0758 |

prices have stayed largely insulated from impacts to global gas prices driven by the jerry.speicher@gs.comGoldman Sachs & Co. LLC

ongoing supply disruptions in the Middle East. Against this backdrop, we continue to

screen our natural gas E&P coverage for 1) compelling risk/reward skew and

attractive valuation relative to peers, 2) companies with a low-cost operating

structure and outlook for incremental efficiencies across the business, and 3) an

extended depth of high-quality inventory. Given this, we highlight AR following the

company’s announced cost savings initiative with a target to drive >$0.70/Mcfe in

cash cost reductions and expand EBITDAX by $300 mn annually by YE2028 relative

to 2025. We also highlight AR’s compelling valuation relative to peers, as we see the

stock trading at a 12% FCF yield on average 2027/2028 estimates relative to