2Q26 Preview: With Healthcare Services Fundamentals in Flux in 2026, an Earnings Season of Serious Purpose Ahead in 2Q

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2Q26 Preview: With Healthcare Services Fundamentals in Flux in 2026, an Earnings Season of Serious Purpose Ahead in 2Q

Goldman Sachs Americas Healthcare Services

risk adjustment dynamics awaiting the June Wakely update. Marketplace morbidity

remains one of the most important variables for HIX-exposed names in coverage,

particularly OSCR and CNC, while Medicaid continues to be a major area of focus as

plans work through mid-year rate resets and still elevated cost trends. We expect 2Q26

earnings commentary to provide one of the first broad opportunities for management

teams to frame how these dynamics are evolving as the 1Q26 seasonal tailwinds fade

and utilization patterns normalize into the second half of the year.

Ahead of 2Q26, we continue to view UNH, CVS, and ALHC as remaining best positioned

to benefit from one of the core features of the underwriting cycle thesis we presented in

our October 2025 coverage initiation on managed care and hospitals, at which point we

argued that the Medicare Advantage market would inflect to the margin recovery phase

of the cycle beginning in 1Q26, following one of the sharpest and most challenging

downturns the MA market has ever experienced during 2023-2025. Importantly, while a

more constructive MA environment has improved the opportunity set for a sustained

recovery narrative, we continue to view company-specific execution on pricing

discipline, benefit design, Stars performance, and medical cost management as the most

important drivers of stock selection. Away from MA, Medicaid also remains a key area of

focus for ELV, MOH, and CNC, where the debate is increasingly centered on the pace of

rate catch-up, the durability of medical cost trends, and the trajectory of margin