Global Markets Daily: Unpacking the Credit vs. Equity Beta Divergence

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Global Markets Daily: Unpacking the Credit vs. Equity Beta Divergence

Economics Research

14 July 2026 | 4:11AM MDT

n USD IG credit has underperformed the US equity market so far this year, even Spencer Rogers, CFA

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when adjusting for the historical beta relationship between the two asset classes. spencer.rogers@gs.com

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

n Moreover, the beta of equities to credit has spiked in recent months, to new

all-time high levels.

n We would attribute most of the shift in the beta relationship to the different ways

in which the AI theme is manifesting across the two markets. In the equity

market, AI has generated significant upside convexity—particularly for

semiconductors and AI infrastructure stocks—as the total addressable market

continues to expand. Meanwhile, in pockets of the credit market, it has recently

led to a technical headwind from the accelerating pace of AI capex-driven

supply.

n Differences in sector composition have also contributed to the shift in the beta

relationship, in our view. The S&P 500 is concentrated in cyclical,

growth-oriented, and long-duration sectors such as Technology, Semiconductors

and Software. Meanwhile, Banks, Utilities and Energy remain the three largest

sectors in the USD IG index, notwithstanding the recent pickup in Tech-related

n One consequence of the recent change in the beta between the two asset classes

is that during risk-off episodes in the equity market, the credit market has

displayed more relative resilience.

Unpacking the Credit vs. Equity Beta Divergence

Corporate credit has historically traded with a beta to equities commensurate with

its lower risk profile, largely owing to differences in capital structure positioning. We