Global Macro Watch: Known Unknowns 13 – 17 July

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Global Macro Watch: Known Unknowns 13 – 17 July

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Global Macro Watch

Known Unknowns 13 – 17 July

US: CPI to reflect a pump price relief, but a core problem 12 July 2026 Corrected

Headline CPI likely fell by 0.09% m/m in June as prices at the pump dropped sharply. Economics Rates & FX

Core inflation, however, should remain elevated at 0.28% m/m (2.9% y/y) owing in part Global

to World Cup related demand driving up services. That should strengthen the case for

hikes near-term, in our view. We expect June retail sales to come in above consensus. Table of Contents

We project increases of 0.3% and 0.9% in retail sales ex-autos and the control group.

Known Unknowns 2

Europe: Euro area IP and CPI (F); UK monthly GDP and IP Known Unknowns (EM) 4

In the Euro area, the main release will be May industrial production, where we expect a Sunday 5

0.6% increase. We will also be watching the details of final inflation data for June for the Monday 5

Euro area. In the UK, monthly GDP and industrial production for May should edge up Tuesday 5

0.1% mom and 0.2% mom, respectively. Wednesday 6

Thursday 7

Canada: BoC to hold again Friday 7

We expect the BoC to hold rates at 2.25% at the July 15 meeting. We see the Bank Research Analysts 12

staying on hold, as a negative output gap and the retracement in oil prices raise the bar

for hikes and should help contain inflation.

Antonio Gabriel

The week ahead in Emerging Markets GlobalBofAS Economist

CB meeting in South Korea. China GDP, retail sales, exports, IP. India CPI, trade balance, antonio.gabriel@bofa.com

exports. Brazil retail sales, services volume. Türkiye CA. Poland CPI, CA. Pedro Diaz Caribbean Economist

BofAS

US: CPI, PPI, retail sales, federal budget, pending home sales, Fed speakers. pdiaz2@bofa.com