What‘s priced in: BOK will likely hike this week

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What‘s priced in: BOK will likely hike this week

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What’s priced in

BOK will likely hike this week

In Korea, the central bank meets on July 16. The market is pricing no change for the 12 July 2026

meeting. Our economists, Benson Wu and Ting Him Ho, forecast the Bank of Korea GEM FI Strategy

(BOK) to deliver a unanimous 25bp rate hike at its 16 July meeting, marking the start of Global

a gradual tightening cycle. Above-target inflation, FX volatility, domestic financial

stability, as well as robust growth, all reinforce a hawkish bias. Claudio Irigoyen Global Economist

BofAS

In Brazil, the market is pricing 27bp of cumulative hikes for the rest of the year. Our claudio.irigoyen@bofa.com

economist, David Beker, changed his call for the next monetary policy meeting (Aug 5) to David Hauner, CFA >>

a 25bp cut from hold (Selic to 14%). For the subsequent meeting, our base case is still a Global EM FI/FX Strategist MLI (UK)

hold, but there is a risk for another 25bp cut, contingent on the evolution of oil prices david.hauner@bofa.com

(see our report: Brazil Watch: June IPCA: a good surprise. Adding another 25bp cut in Claudio Piron

August 10 July 2026). EmergingMerrill LynchAsia(Singapore)FI/FX Strategist

claudio.piron@bofa.com

Pedro Diaz

Caribbean Economist

Chart 1: 12-month priced-in policy rate change vs BofA forecasts BofAS

Our forecasts are more dovish than market expectations pdiaz2@bofa.com

GEMs FI Strategy & Economics

125 99 125 See Team Page for List of Analysts

75 50 75

33 25 19 15 13 6 25 25

-25 -3 -25 -14 -15

-36

-75 -49 -75

Hikes Cuts BofA -68

-125 -125

-175 -175

Korea Mexico Czech Thailand S.Africa Taiwan Colombia Malaysia Chile Peru Poland Brazil Israel Hungary

Updated on July 10. Source: BofA Global Research. 12 month period ends 10 July 2027