Angola vs Kenya: should we only care about oil concentration risk?

研报英文原文证据摘录

Angola vs Kenya: should we only care about oil concentration risk?

Accessible version

Emerging Insight

Angola vs Kenya: should we only care

about oil concentration risk?

Key takeaways 14 July 2026

GEM Fixed Income Strategy &• Kenya has a more diversified economy and a better growth story vs Angola heavy oil

Economics

concentration... Global

• ...but Angola still screens better across most of the fiscal and external debt metrics

even with oil at US$60/bbl. Loic Porte Sub-Saharan Africa Economist

MLI (UK)• EXD: KENINT is rich given poor fundamentals and its elevated EM beta. ANGOL is fair, loic.porte@bofa.com

but the Fed looms given rollover risks

Raghav Adlakha

EM Quant/Sovereign Strategist

MLI (UK)

By Loic Porte and Raghav Adlakha raghav.adlakha@bofa.com

Kenya’s diversification premium looks premature TatongaSub-SaharanRusikeAfrica Economist

Kenya has the more diversified economy and the better growth story than Angola, but MLI (UK) tatonga.rusike@bofa.com

markets are giving too much credit for that premium, we think. Angola is highly Merveille Paja

dependent on oil and structurally less diversified, yet its near-term fiscal and external EEMEA Sovereign FI Strategist

position looks more comfortable. MLImerveille.paja@bofa.com(UK)

Fiscal & debt: Kenya has a fiscal issue, Angola rollover risk DavidGlobal EMHauner,FI/FX CFAStrategist>>

Both credits struggle with politically costly subsidy reform, but the scale of fiscal MLIdavid.hauner@bofa.com(UK)

slippage is not comparable, in our view. Angola’s deficit is around 2% of GDP, or closer Claudio Irigoyen

to 3% even when oil at US$60/bbl. By contrast, Kenya is running closer to 6%. Angola’s Global Economist

fiscal position remains oil-dependent, but Kenya’s deterioration is broader, more BofASclaudio.irigoyen@bofa.com