Plains All American (PAA/PAGP): 2Q26 Preview: Focus on New Organic Growth Outlook

研报英文原文证据摘录

Plains All American (PAA/PAGP): 2Q26 Preview: Focus on New Organic Growth Outlook

Goldman Sachs Plains All American (PAA/PAGP)

1Q26 and our prior estimate of $663m. Sequentially, we see the reversal of $49m of

negative one-offs from 1Q26 (weather, timing of MVCs) and expect full capture of

Cactus III synergies. Elsewhere, we note ongoing marketing strength from higher

crude commodity prices (though limited upside to the PLA -pipeline loss allowance -

given hedges in place at lower prices). We increase our estimate vs. prior on

incremental marketing gains and higher FERC recoupment payments.

n NGL should be down QOQ. We forecast 2Q26 EBITDA of $37m vs. 1Q26 of $145m

and in line with our prior estimate.

Key Focus Areas

Crude backdrop and Permian growth. Crude price volatility previously rose questions

about a US supply response to limited global oil supply - while never a part of our base

case, sentiment on oil has come down as prices have declined and producers have

remained discipline on production activity changes. However, we still see upside for PAA

from underlying Permian growth and a mitigated crude downside risk profile. PAA’s

expanded growth project backlog points to a strong crude macro backdrop for 2H26+.

We expect Permian gas takeaway constraints to have a limited impact on crude volumes

(contrasting with PAA’s EIC commentary noting ~200 kb/d of incremental crude from gas

pipeline additions). We look for commentary on 2H26 and 1H27 production strength

and commercial updates to gauge demand.

Organic growth backlog. PAA recently raised its net growth CapEx guidance to $400–

$450 million (from $350 million) and net maintenance spend to $185 million (from $165

million). We expect more color on these projects, including completion timelines and

returns.