2Q26 AlphaWise Reseller Survey – Solid-Looking Quarter

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2Q26 AlphaWise Reseller Survey – Solid-Looking Quarter

**

Overweight, €190 PT: 1x PEG provides floor valuation support. 2Q CCB can EBIT (€mm)** 10,420 12,015 13,973 16,122

reassure, but AI monetisation clarity and 3Q/4Q are larger catalysts. EPS (€)** 6.10 7.24 8.68 10.27

P/E** 34.1 18.9 15.7 13.3

DPS (€) 2.50 2.75 3.03 3.33

Software investor conviction remains at a low ebb, but we think 2Q should FCF yld ratio (%)** 3.3 6.2 7.1 8.3

Net debt (€mm)* (3,381) (1,824) (6,623) (11,211)

provide a positive quarter for SAP, and CCB consensus looks conservative, given

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

M&A dynamics. We tilt positive into the print: Macro and AI uncertainty, and IBM's framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

soft pre-release yesterday, are weighing on investor expectations for near-term deal * = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

closure rates and by extension Current Cloud Backlog (CCB) growth. SAP's Reltio

acquisition slightly complicates the organic read by adding c. 1pp (MSe >€160m) to Anita Bhardwaj is a member of Morgan

reported y/y cc CCB growth. However, our newly refreshed AlphaWise survey and Stanley's AlphaWise team. She is not a research

wider partner checks show no clear evidence of incremental demand weakness; if analyst and is not expressing investment

anything, the 2Q26 tone was stable to better than 1Q26. We now forecast 25% cc y/ recommendations on financial instruments,

y CCB growth (vs. 24% prior), c. 1pp above consensus at 24% and in line with 1Q26.

Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business withWe think the 24% consensus expectation implies a c. 2pp organic slowdown versus

companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,