SAP SE (SAPG.DE): Mixed takeaways into Q2‘26 from VAR and CIO surveys

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SAP SE (SAPG.DE): Mixed takeaways into Q2‘26 from VAR and CIO surveys

Viewpoint |

10 Jul 2026 00:00:00 ET │ 15 pages

SAP SE (SAPG.DE)

Mixed takeaways into 2Q26 from VAR and CIO surveys

CITI'S TAKE

Ahead of SAP’s 2Q26 results (23rd Jul) our VAR survey conducted with Citi’s

Research Innovation Lab shows mixed trends, with better quota

achievement during the quarter, but forward view is of growth deceleration. Buy

Our CIO survey suggests improved spending backdrop (across US & EU) Price (09 Jul 26 17:30) €137.74

despite still elevated macro caution (particularly in EU). We also take

Target price €205.00cognizance (from CIO survey) of growing prioritization of data / AI projects,

also at the cost of other areas of tech investments. For SAP, cloud booking Expected share price return 48.8%

(CCB) remains key area of focus where we expect modest beat in 2Q, Expected dividend yield 2.2%

however, possible longer sales cycle should keep management’s prudence

Expected total return 51.0%in place for 2026. Outside of view into 2H, AI commercialization

momentum, investment plans, and implications of EU antitrust Market Cap €169,214M

investigation outcome would be areas of investor focus. We stay Buy-rated US$193,522M

on resilience credentials and earnings compounding appeal.

Expect modest 2Q beat; unchanged 2026 outlook despite recent acquisitions —

For 2Q26 we are modestly ahead of consensus across CCB growth, cloud rev growth Price Performance

and OP margin. Beyond 2Q we expect sharper deceleration in CCB growth (~25% in

(RIC: SAPG.DE, BB: SAP GR)2Q to ~22% for 4Q). We expect mgmt to retain 2026 outlook, factoring caution on

macro and headroom on operating profit to have flexibility around AI investments.