Argentina Diversified Banks: 2Q26 Playbook: Credit waits, ROEs improve

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Argentina Diversified Banks: 2Q26 Playbook: Credit waits, ROEs improve

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14 Jul 2026 17:19:49 ET │ 25 pages

Argentina Diversified Banks

2Q26 Playbook: Credit waits, ROEs improve

CITI'S TAKE

Brian Flores, CFA AC

We reiterate our structural Buy (High Risk) rating on Argentine banks, +55-11-4009-2842

anticipating gradual improvements in real ROE and unit economics in 2Q26 luis.brian.flores@citi.com

results. While broad-based credit growth awaits a larger economic trigger,

we see profitability improving from better pricing and resilient net interest Gustavo Schroden

margins. We are marginally adjusting our 2026 estimates and raising target +55-11-4009-5858

prices for BMA and BBAR to reflect better-than-expected ROE trends. Our gustavo.schroden@citi.com

preference remains for banks with stronger capital and coverage ratios, with

an order of BMA, GGAL, BBAR, SUPV and BHIP. Arnon Shirazi, CFA

+55-11-4009-7906

Positive Structural Outlook on Improving Unit Economics — We maintain a arnon.shirazi@citi.com

structural Buy (High Risk) rating across our coverage. We expect gradual

improvements in real ROE for 2Q26, driven by better credit-related unit economics

while growth awaits a trigger from economic spillover. Our analysis shows real ROE

improving at the system level since April, with cost-of-risk improving for most banks

since February. We are adjusting our 2026 estimates marginally to reflect these

trends.

Reiterating Buy Ratings; BMA and GGAL Preferred — We reiterate our Buy (HR)

ratings and update target prices for BMA (to AP$18,000), GGAL (to AP$10,100),

SUPV (to AP$3,800) and BBAR (to AP$13,000). Our preference is for banks with

stronger balance sheets, favoring a combination of high Tier 1 ratios, reserves, and

coverage ratios.