Global Precious Metals: 2Q26 prod preview: Sequentially better; investor focus likely on cost and inventory release; changes to TPs

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Global Precious Metals: 2Q26 prod preview: Sequentially better; investor focus likely on cost and inventory release; changes to TPs

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14 Jul 2026 14:46:54 ET │ 44 pages

Global Precious Metals

2Q26 prod preview: Sequentially better; investor focus likely on cost

and inventory release; changes to TPs

Ephrem Ravi AC

CITI'S TAKE +44-20-7986-2462

Reporting season for precious miners will kick off on 17 July and we expect ephrem.ravi@citi.com

production performance to be sequentially better on lower base (1Q is Shashi Shekhar, CFA

generally weaker seasonally). However, production performance could look

somewhat mixed on a YoY basis for these companies. Overall, we expect the +91-22-4277-5028

quarterly production trends to closely track the full-year guidance across shashi.shekhar@citi.com

the coverage. Market will likely focus on outlook commentary to gauge, Krishan M Agarwal

among other factors: 1) cost performance in the June quarter (impact of +44-020-7986-4092

higher crude oil prices); 2) production performance at some of the mines

e.g., Mogalkewna (1Q was weaker on maintenance being brought forward), krishan.agarwal@citi.com

Styldrfit, and Eland (both ramping up), IMP’s Canadian ops (whether

production will exceed guidance), and the Keliber lithium project; and 4)

inventory release (IMP/NPH). We have also updated our model to

incorporate the latest commodity prices and revisited our assumptions,

resulting in TPs but unchanged ratings.

VAL: 2Q26 production preview – we expect stronger production performance

QoQ on lower base — VAL reports on 17 July. Total production is likely to increase by

10% QoQ while mined production is likely to increase by 16%. The increase is

primarily due to a lower base as 1Q was negatively impacted by seasonality. YoY we