Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – AngloGold Ashanti Ltd (ANGJ.J)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e

Annnual AISC ($/oz) (US$, mn) 1,709 1,933 1,893 1,791

Annual production (oz) 3,091,000.03,008,810.33,054,287.13,238,228.2

Gold price ($/oz) (US$, mn) 3,470 4,509 4,975 4,500

USDZAR (US$, mn) 17.82 16.49 17.29 18.37

AUDUSD (US$, mn) 0.65 0.70 0.70 0.70

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Gold price RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2027e

Obuasi ramp-up underpinning production Gold price above our estimate 11.46 growth FAP translating into ongoing operational EPS

Brownfield extensions improvement (Sukari now key focus) (US$) 6.68 15.65

FAP programme supports relative cost Buybacks/additional dividends 10.43

positioning (Sukari key focus area) Obuasi delivery

Capital allocation Nevada district/Arthur project delivery Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

Greenfield projects, Arthur Feasibility starts Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

2Q26, permitting FY27 RISKS TO DOWNSIDE

Gold price below our estimate

Operational under-delivery/further delay in

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE Obuasi ramp-up

Cash repatriation issues/VAT & export duty

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland 10-20% China and India recovery

20-30% Latin America Increase in Ghana royalties

50-60% MEA Cost inflation ahead of expectations

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate OWNERSHIP POSITIONING

View explanation of regional hierarchies here

Inst. Owners, % Active 58.1%

HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1.4x

HF Sector Net Exposure 2.1%

Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund

exposures held with MSPB. Information may be

inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market

trends. Long/Short Ratio = Long Exposure / Short

exposure. Sector % of Total Net Exposure = (For a