EUROPE TRANSPORTATION: AIRLINES: Updating market outlooks ahead of H1 results; remain Buy IAG, Sell LHA

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EUROPE TRANSPORTATION: AIRLINES: Updating market outlooks ahead of H1 results; remain Buy IAG, Sell LHA

Equity Research

14 July 2026 | 6:02AM CEST

EUROPE TRANSPORTATION: AIRLINES

Updating market outlooks ahead of H1 results; remain Buy IAG, Sell LHA

As we update our IAG and Lufthansa models ahead of Q2 results, we’ve also updated our Patrick Creuset

+33(1)4212-1380 |

industry capacity and fare outlooks through H2 2026, with a focus on the Atlantic and patrick.creuset@gs.com

Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE - Paris

Asia-Europe markets. While trading is strong on both long-haul markets in Q2, we see the Branch

temporary, war-related tightness in the Asia-Europe market already fading, while the Dan-Arthur Coseru

outlook on the Atlantic particularly out of Heathrow remains bullish into H2. Ultimately, this +44(20)7552-2216arthur.coseru@gs.com| dan-

reflects fundamental differences in market structure which underpin our view of a more Goldman Sachs International

Nathan Arnaudsignificant fade in (currently strong) unit revenue trends into 2027 for Lufthansa vs. IAG +33(1)4212-1691 |

and a more constructive ‘27 view relative to consensus on IAG vs. LHA. nathan.arnaud@gs.comGoldman Sachs Bank Europe SE - Paris

Branch

Market analysis: Europe-Asia weaker from temporary Q2 high, N-Atlantic stronger

We illustrate our market analysis in a sequence of charts further down in this note

Exhibit 1. The difference in Heathrow-America vs. Asia-Europe market structure is

well known, but worth visualizing Exhibit 3 Exhibit 4 alongside relative IAG/LHA

exposures before going into capacity and pricing outlooks. Given the fragmented

nature of Asian markets, it’s no surprise capacity growth is significantly

re-accelerating in H2 Exhibit 18 following the temporary reduction in Middle East