2Q26 Results Due Before Open on 6th August

研报英文原文证据摘录

2Q26 Results Due Before Open on 6th August

Fraport AG (FRA GR)

Equity Research

July 14, 2026

The Long View: Fraport

Investment Thesis Risk/Reward - 12 Month View

We see strong FCF expansion ahead, supported by pricing across all

Upside : Downside

domestic divisions, and medium-term passenger growth as airline capacity 120 4.02 : 1

constraints gradually ease. Valuation remains sensitive to capex forecasts; 115 (+66%)

however, with Fraport's major capital projects almost complete, we expect

the market to start looking beyond near-term phasing. The commissioning

90 90 (+30%)

of T3 and renewal of the Lufthansa Ground Handling agreement will be key

drivers of value for the stock. 80

60 58 (-16%)

2025 2026 +12 mo.

Base Case, Upside Scenario, Downside Scenario,

€90, +30% €115, +66% €58, -16%

Cost savings and major capex unwind are driving Accelerated FCF development through Fraport remains highly sensitive to capex

FCF higher. We expect share price appreciation passenger growth (Ukraine/Russia conflict assumptions, given its elevated leverage in the

as the company treads a path towards more ending) or tighter Opex / Capex control would be domestic platform. In our downside scenario we

positive FCF and dividend payments (any a material positive, alongside clarity over a long assume a higher rate of maintenance capex over

disruption to this path would be a key negative), term dividend payout policy. We set our Upside the mid term, which is not compensated for by

while a premium valuation vs peers is justified by Scenario valuation using a 4.5% dividend yield materially higher traffic growth or cost savings.

superior growth and ROCE expansion dynamics. on 75% of outer year FCF, 2x our current DPS

Our price target is based on a SOTP. forecast.

Sustainability Matters Catalysts