2Q26 Results Due Before Open on 6th August

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 Results Due Before Open on 6th August

Fraport AG (FRA GR)

Equity Research

July 14, 2026

The Long View: Fraport

Investment Thesis Risk/Reward - 12 Month View

We see strong FCF expansion ahead, supported by pricing across all

Upside : Downside

domestic divisions, and medium-term passenger growth as airline capacity 120 4.02 : 1

constraints gradually ease. Valuation remains sensitive to capex forecasts; 115 (+66%)

however, with Fraport's major capital projects almost complete, we expect

the market to start looking beyond near-term phasing. The commissioning

90 90 (+30%)

of T3 and renewal of the Lufthansa Ground Handling agreement will be key

drivers of value for the stock. 80

60 58 (-16%)

2025 2026 +12 mo.

Base Case, Upside Scenario, Downside Scenario,

€90, +30% €115, +66% €58, -16%

Cost savings and major capex unwind are driving Accelerated FCF development through Fraport remains highly sensitive to capex

FCF higher. We expect share price appreciation passenger growth (Ukraine/Russia conflict assumptions, given its elevated leverage in the

as the company treads a path towards more ending) or tighter Opex / Capex control would be domestic platform. In our downside scenario we

positive FCF and dividend payments (any a material positive, alongside clarity over a long assume a higher rate of maintenance capex over

disruption to this path would be a key negative), term dividend payout policy. We set our Upside the mid term, which is not compensated for by

while a premium valuation vs peers is justified by Scenario valuation using a 4.5% dividend yield materially higher traffic growth or cost savings.

superior growth and ROCE expansion dynamics. on 75% of outer year FCF, 2x our current DPS

Our price target is based on a SOTP. forecast.

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