Alsea (ALSEA.MX): Q2’26 earnings preview

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Alsea (ALSEA.MX): Q2’26 earnings preview

Equity Research

13 July 2026 | 5:50PM BRT

We update our Alsea model to preview for its Q2 results, and incorporate Thiago Bortoluci

+55(11)3372-0104 |

management’s latest public commentary and high-frequency data. We cut our thiago.bortoluci@gs.com

Goldman Sachs do Brasil CTVM S.A.

consolidated EBITDA forecast by -6%, driven by: 1. Soft macroeconomic conditions

Nicolas Sussmann

in Mexico, 2. Disappointing tourism flows from the FIFA World Cup, and 3. A limited +55(11)3371-9880 |

pass-through of the stronger MXN to gross margin due to a less favorable mix (i.e., nicolas.sussmann@gs.comGoldman Sachs do Brasil CTVM S.A.

lower contribution from Starbucks) and higher distribution costs (i.e., new

distribution center in Guadalajara). Our projected Mexico same-store sales growth of

+1% y/y might not look particularly weak in a context of broadly pressured

consumers, but it might imply potential risks to management’s guidance of growing

consolidated same store sales by +4% to +6% in F2026. With a -7% potential

downside to Bloomberg’s Q2 consensus EBITDA, we remain Sell rated on Alsea

shares. On a brighter note, we recognize sticky and improving free cash flow

generation, alongside better sales momentum in France in June (i.e., at mid-single

digits). Alsea is scheduled to report earnings on July 20.

We are Sell rated on Alsea shares, with a new 12-month target price of P$53.90

(down -12% from P$61.0 before) based on an equal-weighted blend of a DCF (WACC

of 11.75%; terminal growth rate of +5.5%, both unchanged) and a multiple-based

valuation (10.50x Q5-Q8 target P/E, unchanged). The change to our target price is

driven by lower estimates.

Key upside risks and factors that could make us more constructive in our investment

view include: 1.