China Grid Tech: 2026 preview: Sieyuan pre-announced 2Q26 miss on delayed revenue and FX loss, reiterate Buy; lower EPS for Huaming

研报英文原文证据摘录

China Grid Tech: 2026 preview: Sieyuan pre-announced 2Q26 miss on delayed revenue and FX loss, reiterate Buy; lower EPS for Huaming

Goldman Sachs China Grid Tech

Earnings and TP changes: We maintain our Neutral rating, while lowering our 2026-30E

revenue and EPS forecasts by 2%-8% and 2%-10%, respectively, as we reset our market

share gain pace expectations against the backdrop of a lack of OLTC shortage.

Accordingly, our TP is revised down to Rmb23.9 (vs Rmb26.1 previously), still based on

22x 2028E P/E discounted back to 2026E with 9.5% CoE.

Investment thesis, valuation methodology and risks

Sieyuan (002028.SZ, Buy)

Sieyuan is a Chinese grid equipment company, ranking among the top 1-3 in various

product categories with the State Grid. With recognized exceptional product quality and

operational excellence, we expect Sieyuan’s export revenue to grow at a 43% CAGR in

2025-2030E driven by the global grid upgrade cycle due to aged infrastructure,

economy development, renewable energy and Sieyuan’s market share gain in

switchgear/power transformers from 6%/1% in 2025 to 8%/6% in 2030E. In particular,

Sieyuan has made breakthroughs with US data center operators due to the supply

shortage in power transformers, hence we expect its US revenue to take up 26%-30% of

overseas revenue over 2026E-28E, and higher profit contribution helping with firmwide

margin uplift. We think there is visibility for global power transformer supply shortage at

least into 2030E and global grid upgrade into at least 2040E-2050E. We like its unique

positioning because we believe only a few Chinese companies can combine high quality

with a long-term commitment to navigating rigorous certification processes, making

sustained upfront investments, and establishing a proven track record overseas - areas