Phillips 66 (PSX.N): Phillips 66 Looks More Like 76 This Quarter

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Phillips 66 (PSX.N): Phillips 66 Looks More Like 76 This Quarter

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13 Jul 2026 09:39:45 ET │ 14 pages

Phillips 66 (PSX.N)

Phillips 66 Looks More Like 76 This Quarter

CITI'S TAKE

Neutral We are updating our commodity price assumptions and now forecast 2Q

EPS of $7.59 vs. VA consensus of $7.06. Consensus appears to be Price (10 Jul 26 16:00) US$188.36

conservatively modeling EBIT contributions from Chemicals and Target price US$204.00↑

Renewable Fuels. We expect strong results across all segments, from US$183.00

positioning the company for one of the strongest quarters in its history. Expected share price return 8.3%

Midstream should improve sequentially in 2Q, supported by the absence Expected dividend yield 2.7%

of winter storm impacts and higher NGL/crude prices. Refining benefits

Expected total return 11.0% from materially stronger margins (indicator up ~$17.22/Bbl Q/Q).

Market Cap US$75,520M Chemicals margins recovered to ~$0.38/lb in 2Q26 from $0.107/lb in

1Q26, above the mid-cycle expectation of ~$0.30/lb. Renewable Fuels

indicator increased to ~$2.08/Bbl in 2Q versus a mid-cycle level of

$1.50/Bbl, while Marketing & Specialties is expected to deliver a strong Vikram BagriAC

quarter. Operating expenses should also decline sequentially. While some +1-212-816-4506

indicators have softened recently, we expect underlying business vikram.bagri@citi.com

momentum to support continued strong performance into 3Q. Raise our

Theodore Giletti, CFA PT to $204/sh.

+1-212-816-3835

theodore.giletti@citi.com

Refining — We project 2Q26 adjusted EBIT of ~$2.3B vs street at ~$2.4B with

Vignesh Gundahigher indicator offset by lower capture adding ~$2.3B of EBIT vs 1Q26. Utilization

should come within the guidance range despite down time at Wood river/Humber, +1-212-816-9667