Flynas (4264.SE): Cutting FY26 Estimates on Capacity Disruption and Fuel Cost; Remaining Neutral.

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Flynas (4264.SE): Cutting FY26 Estimates on Capacity Disruption and Fuel Cost; Remaining Neutral.

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13 Jul 2026 07:45:14 ET │ 14 pages

Flynas (4264.SE)

Cutting FY26 Estimates on Capacity Disruption and Fuel Cost;

Remaining Neutral.

CITI'S TAKE Neutral

Price (12 Jul 26 15:00) SAR52.30 We revise our Flynas estimates to reflect the disruption from the US-Iran

Target price SAR54.00 conflict, relating to both near-term demand and fuel cost pressures. On

our numbers EBIT margins trough in FY26 at 5%, recovering gradually Expected share price return 3.3%

thereafter to c13% by FY30. While our estimates do reflect a rebound in Expected dividend yield 0.0%

operating margins for the carrier back towards the levels achieved in Expected total return 3.3%

FY24-25, in our view risks are skewed to the downside on this in the Market Cap SAR8,936M

medium term with the carrier's international expansion facing much more US$2,379M

competitive pressure than its domestic network. We remain Neutral with

our TP remaining at SAR54.

Conor DwyerACTarget price remains at SAR54 — Despite cutting near-term estimates, our long-

term estimates remain broadly unchanged, with EBIT reaching SAR2.1bn by FY30 +44-20-7986-2824

and a margin of c13% (broadly in line with prior). c10% EBIT reductions in FY27-29 is conor.dwyer@citi.com

partly offset by lower assumed average price per new right-of-use asset and as a

result lower capital intensity in the business.

Estimate changes — We revise our 2Q26 estimates to reflect the impact of the US-

Iran conflict on Middle East air traffic and fuel costs. We now assume 2Q26 ASKs are

-9% y/y, taking into account recent schedule data, phasing it into positive territory

for 3Q26 (+1%) and 4Q26 (+17%) thereafter as network impacts from the conflict

alleviate.