2Q26 preview: performance dispersion across banks; updates to guidance on earnings calls will be key

研报英文原文证据摘录

2Q26 preview: performance dispersion across banks; updates to guidance on earnings calls will be key

Equity Research

13 July 2026 | 10:06AM GST

MENA BANKS

2Q26 preview: performance dispersion across banks; updates to

guidance on earnings calls will be key

Saudi operating profit and bottom line relatively resilient within MENA: We Kazim Andac

+971(4)214-9958 |

expect Saudi banks to outperform their UAE peers in 2Q26, with projected net kazim.andac@gs.com

Goldman Sachs International

income growth of 1% qoq vs a 5% qoq contraction in the UAE. This resilience is

Ashwath P T, CFAunderpinned by declining SAIBOR bids and loan repricing, which should keep Saudi +971(4)376-3439 | ashwath.pt@gs.com

margins broadly flat. While we expect Saudi banks to deliver 5% PPP growth, we see Goldman Sachs International

Gokul Vinayak La -3% qoq contraction in the UAE, driven by margin pressure from recent rate cuts, +1(332)245-7976 | gokul.l@gs.com

competition for funding, and potentially higher CoR owing to the conflict. Goldman Sachs India SPL

Divergent performance across individual banks: Rajhi and SAB are set to lead

bottom-line growth in Saudi Arabia, on our estimates, benefiting from favorable NIM

expansion and NIR improvements, while SNB and ANB face specific headwinds from

CoR normalization and NIM compression, respectively. In the UAE, FAB is the only

bank positioned for robust qoq growth (+5% on GSe), supported by its strong client

trading and hedging franchise amid market volatility. By contrast, we expect ADCB

and ENBD to see the largest earnings contractions due to a normalization in NIR

(pressure on fees) from a high base and rising CoR.

Key differentiation vs. consensus: Our estimates are most differentiated (4%/3%