Ethanol is delivering, Sugar is not yet

研报英文原文证据摘录

Ethanol is delivering, Sugar is not yet

Equity Research

European Consumer Staples

13 July 2026

Suedzucker AG

Ethanol is delivering, Sugar is not

yet

Südzucker's Q1 beat reinforces improving fundamentals, but SZUG.DE/SZU GY OVERWEIGHT

management remains cautious on the pace of Sugar recovery. Unchanged

European Consumer

We trim FY27-28 estimates on a more gradual sugar price Staples NEUTRAL

Unchanged

recovery assumption, yet continue to see tightening supply Price Target EUR 13.70

lowered -2% from EUR 14.00and strong ethanol markets as supportive of multi-year

recovery. Price (10-Jul-26) EUR 11.14

Potential Upside/Downside +23.0%

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

Sugar risk/reward improving, but material inflection pushed into FY28: We continue to

believe the risk/reward in European sugar is improving as the market moves away from peak Market Cap (EUR mn) 2274

oversupply conditions. European beet acreage has declined materially, while global sugar Shares Outstanding (mn) 204.18

fundamentals are becoming more supportive as the risk of El Niño-related disruption to key Free Float (%) 26.28

producing regions returns to focus. However, the Q1 results and subsequent conference call 52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 0.2

reinforced that a meaningful earnings recovery is likely to be more gradual than we previously Dividend Yield (%) N/A

assumed. While management noted that spot EU sugar prices have increased in recent weeks Return on Equity TTM (%) -13.83

amid concerns around hot and dry weather across parts of Europe, inventories remain elevated Current BVPS (EUR) 10.68

and the company continues to assume broadly flat pricing as its base case. Around two-thirds of Source: Bloomberg

the FY27/28 sales book remains to be contracted, leaving scope for some improvement should