Asia Economic Weekly: Tourism recovery in Asia; India‘s weakest monsoon start in 12 years

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Asia Economic Weekly: Tourism recovery in Asia; India‘s weakest monsoon start in 12 years

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Asia Economic Weekly

Tourism recovery in Asia; India's weakest

monsoon start in 12 years

This week in focus 10 July 2026

Recent indicators point to a mixed macro backdrop across Asia. In China, June inflation GEM Fixed Income Strategy &

data showed continued divergence between soft consumer demand and firmer upstream Economics

price pressures. In India, the weakest start to the monsoon season in 12 years has raised Asia

concerns over agricultural activity and food inflation, although the outlook for July–

August rainfall will be critical in determining the ultimate macro impact. In Japan, wage Table of Contents

growth remained solid and broad-based, with positive real wage growth and supportive This Week in Focus 2

summer bonuses underpinning household income. In New Zealand, RBNZ just hiked by

Asia in Focus 3

25bp to 2.5% as expected, and we expect another hike in Dec.

India in Focus 6

Asia: Accessibility, affordability, activities shape tourism Data Preview 9

recovery Macro Forecasts 10 Research Analysts 15

Visa liberalization and improved connectivity are boosting accessibility, supporting

continued recovery in Asia tourism. Affordability still matters. Weak currencies and low

inflation (e.g. JP & KR) continue to support tourism competitiveness. Activities are Helen Qiao

becoming a key differentiator as destinations compete through events, wellness and ChinaMerrill&LynchAsia Economist(Hong Kong)

lifestyle tourism. helen.qiao@bofa.com

Izumi Devalier

India: Monsoon off to a weak start; Jul-Aug critical months JapanBofASEconomistJapan

2026 southwest monsoon has started on a weak footing, with rainfall 17% below normal Rahul Bajoria

as of early July.