The Oil Gusher: 2Q26 Playbook Part I: Flash from the past?

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The Oil Gusher: 2Q26 Playbook Part I: Flash from the past?

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The Oil Gusher

2Q26 Playbook Part I: Flash from the past?

Estimate Change

Key takeaways 10 July 2026

Equity• 2Q26 updates so far mean we trim our FY26 estimates by 1% on avg. Our 2Q26

Pan-Euro

estimates are now 3% below consensus on avg. Oils

• But at $75/bbl Brent across 2H26, we see no more downside to FY26 consensus cash

flows - except at Neste and Eni Christopher Kuplent >> Research Analyst

MLI (UK)• We reiterate our preference for quality and organic growth over chasing beta: Top Big +44 20 7995 8222

Oil pick TTE christopher.kuplent@bofa.com

Matthew Smith >>

Research Analyst

MLI (UK)Flash from the past: 2Q26 results @ ~$100/bbl Brent +44 20 7996 7109

2Q26 results represent mostly an outdated macro environment vs. today’s strip into matt.smith1@bofa.com

2H26 and 2027: ~$100/bbl vs. <$80/bbl Brent. However, the European TTF gas price Cian Evans-Cowie >>

curve has held its shift higher since the first closure of the Strait (echoing our warnings ResearchMLI (UK) Analyst

of continued upside risks – see The Oil Gusher: LNG additions to make fresh records – +44 20 7995 0940

cian.evans-cowie@bofa.com

helped by near-term gas price squeeze).

From ceasefire to (no) more Strait talking? Jargon buster:

We note traffic transiting the Strait of Hormuz has ground to a halt this week in the

EQNR: Equinor

wake of renewed US-Iran attacks: However, we believe Brent’s ‘fear gauge’ prices in an

TTE: TotalEnergieseffective ceasefire to return soon. Partly as a result of this volatility, we do not expect

Bbl: barrelBig Oils to further upgrade their medium-term macro outlook and corresponding cash

return promises (in some cases already looking overexposed – see Exhibit 20): Bpd: barrels per day