MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI): 2Q26 preview — what to look for

研报英文原文证据摘录

MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI): 2Q26 preview — what to look for

Goldman Sachs MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI)

All in all, we project EBIT of US$683mn, with a 6.9% margin. This compares to VA

consensus at US$686mn, with a 7.1% margin. We forecast provisions as a % of net

revenues to rise by c.+390bp yoy (c.+20bp qoq) and marketing expenses ex-PDA to

increase by c.+25bp yoy to 11.5% (stable qoq), as the step-up in investment behind paid

traffic/ social media and affiliate marketing started in 2Q25, but MELI has kept a

relatively elevated pace of marketing investments throughout the quarter, specially

during the FIFA World Cup in June. We expect some degree of dilution to come from

G&A expenses (-45bp yoy) and product & technology development, albeit at a slower

-65bp yoy (vs. -140bp yoy in 1Q26), as operating leverage from AI-driven developer

productivity gains is partly offset by greater spend on company-wide adoption of AI

tools.

MELI’s EBIT margin to return to double digit levels by 2030E

Although we believe that MELI is likely to continue to scale certain strategic initiatives

that may come initially as a headwind to profitability, we expect other levers to more

than offset these investments in the long-term (e.g. operational leverage at G&A, select

pricing changes in commerce, potentially lower interest rates supporting financing

spreads and a higher penetration of ads). Therefore, looking to our hypothetical

segment-by-segment margin analysis, we remain confident that MELI should be able to

reach a consolidated EBIT margin close to 12% by 2030E.

n For lending (23% of 2026E revenues). We estimate that MELI’s lending margin may

have reached mid-teens in 2025, from historically mid to high 20%s, as the company

continued to scale its credit card book.