Refining our Brazil GLP-1 outlook for 2027 with a closer assessment of semaglutide branded similars; 2026 TAM unchanged

研报英文原文证据摘录

Refining our Brazil GLP-1 outlook for 2027 with a closer assessment of semaglutide branded similars; 2026 TAM unchanged

Goldman Sachs Latin America Healthcare

What is new in the discussion?

Quick 1H26 recap and semaglutide branded similars1 overview. Recall that ahead of

the patent expiration, in Oct-25, Novo Nordisk announced a partnership with Eurofarma

to distribute and commercialize its semaglutide products in Brazil (branded as

Poviztra/Extensior). Per news reports, this arrangement was designed to strengthen

Novo Nordisk’s local distribution and enable greater pricing flexibility (see Exhibit 3 for

an overview of selected retail prices), while protecting Ozempic’s brand equity.

In March-26, Novo Nordisk’s semaglutide patent expiration triggered a race to approve

new branded similar drugs, with EMS becoming the first Brazilian company to launch a

semaglutide-based product after the patent expiration, branded as Ozivy, now enjoying

a first-mover advantage as the main alternative to Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic and

Poviztra/Extensior. We expect Hypera to launch its product by the end of 3Q26 (ANVISA

approval expected by mid-year, with an estimated 2-3 month time to market due to

importing logistics). The Avita Care/Sandoz product could be next (according to

Neofeed) and could be approved in the upcoming months, while Cristalia’s filing is also in

an advanced stage. We present below a table summarizing the main events and our

expected approval timeline.

While the requests for approvals are tracking as expected, what surprised us in past

months was the pricing strategy adopted by select companies. As per early 2025

comments from EMS, we had previously expected the semaglutide branded similar

drugs to be priced around BRL ~700 at launch, offering a 30% discount to Ozempic.