End of Week Market Intelligence: relaxing?

研报英文原文证据摘录

End of Week Market Intelligence: relaxing?

Goldman Sachs End of Week Market Intelligence

2026-2028E before capex growth decelerates to a more normalized level in 2029

and beyond. Tight supply of compute capacity coupled with rising costs for

datacenter components (including memory chips) drives our higher forecast.

n GOOGL. We raised our total company capex estimates and now expect the company

to spend a cumulative ~$790bn between 2026-2028. At the same time, we raised

our Google Cloud segment revenue (now forecasting a ~64% 3-year CAGR through

2028) and operating income estimates (assuming incremental margins of ~40-45%)

to reflect greater optimism around the company executing against its current

reported backlog (which nearly doubled sequentially in Q1 reported).

n MSFT. We raised our capex estimates for FY28-30 by ~10% based on ongoing

supply/demand commentary and updated AI investment expectations from chip

vendors. And we now forecast FY28 capex of $319bn including financial leases for

MSFT.

AMZN, GOOGL, and MSFT are not the only big holders of compute power. META, ORCL,

and SPCX also have significant datacenter capacity. And Sheridan, Noah Poponak, and

Mike Ng launched coverage of SPCX this week in a comprehensive deep dive report,

“SPCX: Scaling Through Vertical Integration Against Multiple Trillion Dollar Market

Opportunities; Initiate Buy Rating & $205 PT.” SPCX presents a track record of building

toward solutions which many industry experts had previously viewed to be implausible

(albeit with this execution not being as linear as public market investors typically desire),

particularly with regard to their ability to be the low cost provider of various

infrastructure-as-a-service offerings. Overall, we view SpaceX to be a unique company