Springer Nature AG (sPGG.DE): Liquidity yet to improve despite first share placing by PE; 1H26 preview; reiterate Buy

研报英文原文证据摘录

Springer Nature AG (sPGG.DE): Liquidity yet to improve despite first share placing by PE; 1H26 preview; reiterate Buy

Goldman Sachs Springer Nature AG (SPGG.DE)

Exhibit 17: The company has achieved solid cash Exhibit 18: …enabling it to de-lever to 0.8x in 2028E, from

generation of ~€1.2bn (cumulative) over the past four 1.7x in 2025

years… Financial leverage, net debt incl. leases/EBITDA

Free cash flow development, €mn

500 4.0x

3.6x

3.5x 3.3x

350 3.0x 2.9x

300 2.5x 2.3x

250 225

205 442 2.0x 1.7x 409 200

1.4x 333 350 374

150 288 298 1.5x

100 219 219 1.1x

165 1.0x 0.8x

0.5x

0 0.5x

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 0.1x

0.0x

FCF Extraordinary items 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E

2023 extraordinary items include: one-off refinancing fees, pension trust Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

contributions, and surrender payments. 2023 extraordinary items include:

one-off refinancing fees

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Estimate Changes, Valuation, and Key Risks

We make minor changes to our Springer Nature estimates, reflecting recent business

trends and updated FX (now based on 1.14 USD/EUR for 2027 onwards). For 2026, we

forecast u/l group revenue growth of +5.8%, implying revenue of €1,991mn (vs. Vara

consensus: €1,979mn), with our adj. operating profit forecast at €564mn (vs. Vara

consensus: €556mn), resulting in a 28.3% margin (+10bps yoy), and 2026 EPS forecast of

€1.65 (vs. €1.67 previously; in line with consensus). Our 2027-30 group revenue/adj.

operating profit forecasts increase by ~1%, driven by updated FX, while our EPS increase

by ~-3%, on average, reflecting updated net interest and tax assumptions.

Exhibit 19: Springer Nature: Changes to Estimates