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US Economics Weekly: Shifting balance of risks
研报英文原文证据摘录
US Economics Weekly: Shifting balance of risks
US Economics Weekly
10 July 2026 Citi Research
Continuing jobless claims have been rising from low levels, suggesting that the
familiar seasonal pattern, where labor market data softens over the summer
months, may be repeating. Data for initial jobless claims out this week covered July
4th and may be distorted by the holiday, meaning the next couple weeks will help to
better establish the trend.
Figure 5. Continuing claims have been rising Figure 6. Initial claims generally following the same pattern
as recent years
Continuing Claims (SA, Thous) Initial claims 2023 Initial claims 2024
2000 Initial claims 2025 Initial claims 2026
1950 260
1900 250
1800 Thous. 240230
Thous 1750 avg 220
1700 4-week 210
Dec-22 Feb-23 Apr-23 Jun-23 Aug-23 Oct-23 Dec-23 Feb-24 Apr-24 Jun-24 Aug-24 Oct-24 Dec-24 Feb-25 Apr-25 Jun-25 Aug-25 Oct-25 Dec-25 Feb-26 Apr-26
© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission. © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.
Source: Citi Research Source: Citi Research
That the labor force is not a source of inflationary pressure is affirmed by wage
data. Monthly average hourly earnings picked up in June, but to a rate consistent
with inflation running around target. The Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker was also
stronger on the month, but the three-month smoothed measure remains at rates
that prevailed pre-pandemic.
Figure 7. Atlanta Wage tracker has slowed to pre-pandemic Figure 8. AHE for different sectors are close to their pre-
range pandemic rates
Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker: Non-Smoothed (NSA, Y/Y %Chg) AHE relative to 2019 average YoY growth
Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker (3M smoothed) Goods-producing Industries Information Services
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