US Leisure: Toys Incr. HAS/Decr. MAT estimates into 2Q; 2H Uncertainty Remains

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US Leisure: Toys Incr. HAS/Decr. MAT estimates into 2Q; 2H Uncertainty Remains

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10 Jul 2026 11:34:50 ET │ 25 pages

US Leisure

Toys: Incr. HAS/Decr. MAT estimates into 2Q; 2H Uncertainty Remains

CITI'S TAKE

Leisure

As we look to 2Q toy earnings for HAS, we believe that the underlying

strength of Magic the Gathering is as strong as ever, but the Final Fantasy James Hardiman AC

comparison will prove difficult to match by Marvel Super Heroes on a full- +1-212-816-4035

year basis, with 2H reprint comps more challenged. We attribute this more james.hardiman@citi.com

to a branding mismatch than ‘Magic Fatigue’, as the more comparable ‘in-

universe’ releases continue to set records and see set-over-set growth. For Sean Wagner

MAT, whereas 2026 is clearly a ‘bridge’ year, entertainment remains a +1-212-519-8834

tailwind, although our analysis of current and future releases suggests this sean.wagner@citi.com

catalyst is likely to be a bit more muted than previously expected.

For Hasbro, our most recent work on Magic the Gathering (MtG) suggests that the

underlying momentum of the brand remains as strong as ever for in-universe sets

and relatively weaker than 2025 for Universes Beyond. Demand indicators

suggest that ‘In-Universe’ releases for 2026 are poised to drive impressive growth in

2026. While the early read on Marvel Super Heroes seems to indicate it is not

exceeding 2025’s Final Fantasy demand and as such will be a difficult lap on a full-

year basis, it would appear that the 2Q comp will be favorable, with more difficult

reprint compares likely in 3Q/4Q. The tougher 2H WotC compares should be offset

to a degree by CP entertainment tailwinds (Spider-Man: Brand New Day and

Avengers: Doomsday). Our 2Q EBITDA estimate of $296M is up $5M and now stands