CEEMEA Economics & Strategy Daily: Czechia CPI, Poland MPC

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CEEMEA Economics & Strategy Daily: Czechia CPI, Poland MPC

June, declining from 2.9% YoY in May to 2.8% YoY. This

would imply that the core inflation momentum eased from 3.3% in May to below

3% in June, providing further evidence that underlying price pressures are gradually

easing (CNB will publish its final estimate of core inflation today at 12 PM London

time). Nevertheless, we expect the current disinflationary contribution from food

and motor fuel prices to diminish over the forecast horizon. A weaker domestic

grain harvest this year, together with the gradual stabilization of agricultural

producer prices, should return food inflation to positive territory during the second

half of the year. This could be reinforced by higher global food prices related to the

expected effects of El Niño. Another upside inflation risk stems from the renewed

increase in oil and natural gas prices following the latest US strikes on Iran, which

could undermine ongoing negotiations over a broader peace agreement and

shipping arrangements in the Strait of Hormuz. Our forecast continues to expect

average headline inflation of 2.1% in 2026, rising to 2.5% in 2027. By comparison,

the CNB's May forecast projects average inflation of 2.2% in 2026 and 2.4% in

2027. For core inflation, we continue to expect a gradual moderation from 2.8% this

year to 2.3% in 2027, broadly in line with the CNB's May projection of 2.2%.

From a monetary policy perspective, the final June inflation data support our

baseline scenario of an extended period of policy rate stability following the

CNB's preventive 25bp rate hike in June. Despite elevated uncertainty, domestic

demand remains relatively resilient, supported by continued growth in real wages

and household consumption.