The Point for North America

研报英文原文证据摘录

The Point for North America

results. We believe this dynamic also creates carryover risk to numbers in 2027,

when PEP will be cycling 2026’s highly active innovation period, with still elevated

cost inflation pressuring margins. As such, we move to Neutral on PEP and lower

our TP to $145 based on ~16.3x our 2027 $8.90 EPS estimate.

Filippo Falorni, CFA

PFNA US Nielsen Scanner Data vs. Reported

3.0% PFNA Scanner Sales Growth

PEP Reported PFNA OSG

2.0%

1.0%

0.0%

-1.0% -0.4%

-1.0% -2.0% -1.3% -1.5% -1.7% -2.0% -2.0% -2.0% -2.0% -2.0% -2.0% -2.0% -3.0% -2.2% -2.4% -2.4% -2.4% -2.7% -3.0%

-4.0%

2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26TD

(L2W)

Ryder (R.N) - R 2Q Preview: D/G to Neut. on limited risk/reward with val. likely

pricing in R's targeted upturn peak

We caught up with R on industry trends. Sustained ISM/spot rate strength should

continue to benefit all 3 segments, with volume step-up followed by lagged rate

given R’s largely contractual composition. R benefits from rate hike resilience in

the pass-through nature of its lease business, as its leases typically feature

interest rate escalators and it prices its cost of funding into its lease rates, with the

concentrated truck leasing market supporting industry pricing discipline. R also

uses interest rate swaps to minimize floating rate mix. Historically, rate hikes have

been a headwind on used vehicle sales (UVS), utilization, and rental rates,

however, but through R's management it has been able to grow revenue and

earnings through these phases. The potential repeal of the truck excise tax has

introduced a possible headwind to UVS. We D/G to Neut. on triangulating

valuation through (1) forward P/E, (2) peak scenario analysis, (3) SOTP.

Ben Mohr | Ariel Rosa | Adrian Baran