PKO Bank Polski (PKO.WA): Structural alpha and medium-term upside in a transformed landscape; reiterate Buy

研报英文原文证据摘录

PKO Bank Polski (PKO.WA): Structural alpha and medium-term upside in a transformed landscape; reiterate Buy

Goldman Sachs PKO Bank Polski (PKO.WA)

underpins our projected 14% earnings CAGR, cementing PKO BP’s status as one of the

premier banks in CEEMEA in terms of profitability.

EU funding super-cycle: A multi-year tailwind for PKO and Polish banks

The Polish economy continues to exhibit exceptional resilience and a unique ability to

decouple from regional headwinds, outperforming CEE and Eurozone peers with a 3.5%

expansion in 1Q26 fueled by effective state interventions (e.g. tax cuts, price caps,

regulated utility tariffs) and a stable monetary environment. This robust macro backdrop

is further amplified by an unprecedented EU funding super-cycle, with inflows

potentially exceeding EUR 40bn in 2026 acting as a transformative catalyst for banking

liquidity and credit demand. As the market leader, we think PKO BP is uniquely

positioned to capture this accelerating shift toward public and private capex through

bridging loans and performance guarantees, leveraging the EUR 76bn Cohesion Policy

and EUR 54.7bn KPO liquidity waves. Ultimately, the convergence of superior GDP

growth and a durable, multi-year runway for high-margin corporate lending should help

PKO BP remain the primary beneficiary of Poland’s structural economic

outperformance.

Disciplined yield delivery and value creation through 2028

Despite significant regulatory headwinds, including the implementation of CRR3/CRD VI

and a rising CCyB targeted at 2%, PKO BP maintains a fortress-level capital position,

underpinned by robust organic generation of c.390bps annually and disciplined RWA

growth (c.10% CAGR). We forecast a sustained CET1 ratio of 15.8% by 2028, well above