Global Markets Daily: The G10 FX Carry Comeback

研报英文原文证据摘录

Global Markets Daily: The G10 FX Carry Comeback

Economics Research

9 July 2026 | 9:14PM BST

n We argue that carry bears more relevance for G10 FX markets now than it has at Stuart Jenkins

+44(20)7051-4700 |

virtually any other point since the year 2000, and we continue to see value in stuart.jenkins@gs.com

Goldman Sachs International

carry strategies funded by G10 low-yielders (JPY, CHF, EUR, CAD) in the months

ahead.

n G10 FX currently boasts the combination of historically elevated levels of

outright carry, and historically subdued levels of vol. A stabilisation in G10 policy

rates at high and varied levels following the post-Covid inflation surge and recent

energy shock has helped allow for this dynamic, but in practical terms for FX

markets, it has produced exceptionally high levels of carry-to-vol currently,

including near multi-decade highs for the likes of EUR/CHF and USD/CAD.

n Another striking feature of the current G10 carry landscape is the breakdown in

the relationship between carry and sensitivity to risk. This allows for high

carry-to-vol offerings in crosses that have traded as risk-neutral in recent

months, as well as relatively high carry-to-vol offerings in risk-off expressions

(such as long Dollar versus SEK or NZD). We view the opportunity to earn carry in

G10 FX while remaining relatively insulated from (or even hedged against)

drawdowns in risk as a useful option in multi-asset portfolios in the current

backdrop.

The G10 FX Carry Comeback

We argue that carry bears more relevance for G10 FX markets now than it has at

virtually any other point since the year 2000.

To some extent, this observation has already held true for 2026 so far. Carry returns

have explained a historically large portion of total returns across major Dollar pairs