Gecina (GFCP.PA) Potential pivot from acquisitions to share buy back; reiterate Buy

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Gecina (GFCP.PA) Potential pivot from acquisitions to share buy back; reiterate Buy

Goldman Sachs Gecina (GFCP.PA)

€0.7bn pa.

Catalysts: We believe key catalysts in the near to mid term include further progress on

leasing (e.g., T1), accretive capital recycling, including disposals from the pipeline, and a

potential share buyback, which would represent a shift in management’s capital

allocation strategy, though the company has had some small programs in the past (and

which we believe would be well-received by investors in the current environment, given

discounted valuation levels). We believe the key debate for the stock remains its EPS

growth trajectory, given asset rotation and T1 reletting. Any acceleration of EPS growth,

which Visible Alpha Consensus Data does not show before 2028, would drive a re-rating,

in our view.

Valuation: Gecina trades at a 9.7% 12m fwd earnings yield (vs. 5.2% LT average) and a

54% discount to NTA/share (vs. a 23% LT average), a discounted level vs. history.

Anticipating tilting capital allocation towards share buybacks

Adding to disposals, removing acquisitions

Following the successful execution of buybacks by peers such as Castellum (which

recently completed its SEK3.4bn programme), Colonial and Lumo, we revise our capital

allocation assumptions for Gecina to reflect a greater focus on capital recycling and

shareholder returns. Across 2026-28E, we now assume cumulative disposals of €1.65bn

(vs. €0.4bn previously) and acquisitions of €0.2bn (vs. €0.8bn previously). In addition, we

introduce a forecast for share buybacks of €300mn in 2026E and €250mn in 2027E,

equivalent to c.10% of Gecina’s current market capitalisation. Our revised assumptions

result in our 2026-28 EPS forecasts rising by 0%-3%.