June MTM and H1 preview – slowing flows but market gains support EPS upgrades

研报英文原文证据摘录

June MTM and H1 preview – slowing flows but market gains support EPS upgrades

Equity Research

10 July 2026

UK Wealth/Investment Platforms

June MTM and H1 preview –

slowing flows but market gains

European Diversified Financialssupport EPS upgrades

POSITIVE

We raise EPS estimates for UK Wealth Mgrs/Inv platforms Unchanged

ahead of Q3 26 updates / H1 26 results. Healthy market European Diversified Financials Michael Sanderson

tailwinds underpin sector AUA growth of 8%-10% over Q2. +44 (0)20 3134 2487

While AI looks set to impact the industry’s mid-term growth, michael.sanderson@barclays.comBarclays, UK

we continue to forecast c.10% EPS CAGR 2025-28e. IntegraFin Grace Dargan

+44 (0)20 3555 4065is key OW.

grace.dargan@barclays.com

Barclays, UK

Raising AUA/EPS estimates and reflecting the new STJ reporting framework: We raise AUA

Krystal Han

(and equivalent) estimates by c.5% across the UK wealth sub-sector, encompassing the

+44 (0)20 7116 1890

calendar Q2 market movements that have seen major equity indices rising >10% (Figure 4). We krystal.han@barclays.com

change our STJ reporting to reflect the new financial reporting framework. Across the sub- Barclays, UK

sector, we raise EPS estimates by low single digits on average (with the greatest upgrades to

Hafsa Yasir

estimates at AJB and the lowest at STJ) as revenue tiering factors and higher costs dampen the

+44 (0)20 7116 3644

AUA upgrades. hafsa.yasir@barclays.com

Q2 flow momentum to lag Q1 – AJB strongest, STJ weakest: The lower seasonal support for

Q2 flows combined with (or despite) the market volatility means we forecast c.8-10% AUA

growth over the quarter across the sub-sector. We expect flows to be lower vs the seasonal

strength of Q1 with platform flows sharply higher than pure wealth management and AJB